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Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

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Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby MikeW » Tue Oct 08, 2002 3:57 pm

...considering the November elections will likely decide the outcome of next years rent law renewal fight.

I'm thinking if Pataki is back, and he has three year before he faces the voters again (from the time the rent laws would expire), he has no reason to allow the rent laws to be renewed.

We don't even have to talk about the legislature.
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby MikeW » Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:56 am

they always say rent law is not goig to be renewed...it's been goin gon for decades...u really think it stands a chance?
A chance of being renewed or a chance allowed to expire? Actually I think either is possible. Lately Pataki has been a Republican in sheep's clothing, cosying up with labor and some other 'traditional' left wing constituencies. We'll see how long this lasts. My guess is it will last till the day after election day.

One group I have NOT heard him cosying up to are tenants. There was a minor effort a few months ago to try an renew the rent law early, before the election. A bill (predictably) made it through the assembly, and (also predictably) never saw the light of day in the senate. And it just disappeared. You'd think someone would try to use this in the election, but I havent heard a peep about anything tenant related since.

So what does this mean after the elections. Pataki will, of course, owe tenants nothing. He traditionally does poorly in areas with a large percentage of regulated tenants, and he still wins. Of course he owes the LL community quite a bit, as payback for lavish and loyal campaign contributions. How do you think this bodes for him signing off on the rent law renewal.

The one thing that usually gets the law renewed is the disposition of the state senate, where the Republicans hold a narrow majority. Some of this majority come from Republicans elected out of city districts with large regulated tenant populations. Obviously these senators are not looking to kick the hornets nest by allowing the regulations to expire. Last time around the Republican leadership nearly let that happen, but at the last minute had a case of cold feet (especially Pataki), and let them be renewed. This was because there was a gubenatorial election a year away, and there would have been major mayhem in the midst of the campaign. So they punted.

This time around it's different. If Pataki gets reelected, he won't have to face the voters for over three years from the date of the expiration of the rent regulations (June 2003). The timing is important, because all regulated tenants have leases that expire in no more than two years. This means the mayhem from their expiration will be over and done with before Pataki's next campaign (either for yet another term as governor, or for US Senate against Hillary Clinton).

If the rent laws are allowed to expire, It will likely be from a Pataki veto, not because the State Senate refused to pass a bill. They'll pass the bill, with all the downstate Republicans voting for it. Pataki will veto it, since it really doesn't matter to him. The Democrat dominated Assembly will vote to override. The Democrats and vulnerable city Republicans in the senate will also vote to override. This provides the city Republicans with plausible deniability, since they voted for both the bill and the override. But there are enough upstate/suburban Republicans to squash the override in the Senate, and the law expire.

I think this is the most likely scenario. Then again, the Republicans may get cold feet and/or use the rent laws as a huge bargaining chip for something else they want.

In the end, I think its 50-50 at best.

<small>[ October 09, 2002, 11:59 AM: Message edited by: MikeW ]</small>
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby MikeW » Thu Oct 17, 2002 5:57 pm

People don't really care about this, huh? It's going to make next year very interesting.
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby Lilly » Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:49 pm

a mass mailing to every tenant in every rent regulated apartment in NYC. Here's a link to the list of rent stabilized apts in NYChttp://www.housingnyc.com/resources/zip.html
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby MikeW » Fri Oct 18, 2002 10:46 am

Lilly,

I'm missing something. Are you saying this has been done, or needs to be done?
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby surfnyc » Tue Nov 05, 2002 12:46 pm

Gov.>Dem.?
Comptroller>Dem??????????
Attorney Gen.> Dem.
Supreme Court >unchallanged
Civil Court> unchallanged
Congress>Carolyn Maloney
State Senator>Thomas Duane
Assembly> Sanders - Spuches --Penny Archade?
63rd ED
74th AD
or
Lot 51
14th CD
29th SD
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby surfnyc » Tue Nov 05, 2002 1:21 pm

Did you vote for a Comptroller?
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Re: Suprised there's no talk about the elections...

Postby MikeW » Wed Nov 06, 2002 12:47 pm

Well, it's over. Absolutely nothing's changed. Pataki's governor for the next four years and the State Senate is still controlled by the Republicans.

Anyone taking odds the rent law renewal next year? Inertia says that they probably will be renewed. But the Republicans are feeling pretty frisky right now, and the political timing for letting the regs lapse is as good as it could ever get get. Maybe the Republicans will think it's time to pay the LLs back for all their loyal support (ie. $$$,$$$,$$$ over the years), not to mention the tenants for their support (NOT!).
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